Динаміка поширеності методів спалювання твердих побутових відходів в Україні

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of municipal solid waste in developed countries, it is common to incinerate it in incinerators. Therefore, the definition of regression dependence, which describes the dynamics of the prevalence of municipal solid waste incineration methods in Ukraine to solve the problem of municipal solid waste management, is an urgent scientific and technical task. The aim of the study is to determine, by regression analysis, the dependences that describe the dynamics of the prevalence of municipal solid waste incineration methods in Ukraine to solve the problem of municipal solid waste management. The method of regression analysis of the results of one-factor experiments and other pair dependences with the choice of a more adequate type of function from the 16 most common variants by the criterion of the maximum correlation coefficient was used during the research. The regression was performed on the basis of linearizing transformations, which allow reducing the nonlinear dependence to the linear one. The coefficients of the regression equation were determined by the method of least squares with the help of the developed computer program "RegAnaliz", which is protected by the copyright registration certificate for the work. Adequate regression dependences describing the dynamics of the prevalence of municipal solid waste incineration methods in Ukraine are obtained. A graphical dependence is constructed, which describes the dynamics of the prevalence of municipal solid waste incineration methods in Ukraine and allows illustrating this dynamics, to show a sufficient convergence of theoretical and actual results. It is established that in Ukraine during 2012—2019 the prevalence of municipal solid waste incineration for energy purposes increased exponentially, and the prevalence of non-municipal solid waste incineration - decreased exponentially hyperbolic. It is projected that in Ukraine in 2031 among the methods of solid waste incineration, the prevalence of incineration for energy under appropriate conditions may be 99,66 %, and without energy — 0,34 %.