ПРОБЛЕМЫ И РИСКИ РАЗВИТИЯ АГЕНТСКОЙ ЗАНЯТОСТИ В РОССИЙСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ

Abstract

In accordance with Federal Law No. 116-FZ, starting from 2016, borrowed labor is prohibited in the Russian Federation. At the same time, such a phenomenon as agency employment is actively developing: the total volume of the Russian market for recruitment, provision of personnel, and outsourcing amounted to 281.3 billion rubles in 2020. At the same time, a number of studies indicate a possible link between agency work and informal employment, however, in the absence of statistical data, quantifying this relationship is not an easy task for Russia. In this regard, the purpose of the study is to determine the direction of the influence of the migration factor (international and interregional migration) and informal employment on agency employment. A new approach has been applied to the study of the phenomenon of agency employment in the Russian economy. Due to the limited data of the World Confederation of Labor and the fact of a positive correlation between the level of penetration of agency employment and the global competitiveness index, an attempt was made to empirically assess the impact of informal employment and migration processes on the scale of borrowed labor in Russia. To do this, based on data for 2007-2019, the authors built a multiple linear regression model, where the index of global competitiveness of Russia was used as a dependent variable. As a research result, it was found that interregional migration contributes to the growth of agency employment, while international migration, on the contrary, restrains it. As for the impact of informal employment, it is ambiguous and requires further study. The authors conclude that most of the risks of agency employment (borrowed labor) in the Russian economy are associated not so much with the phenomenon of borrowed labor itself, but rather with the problems of informal and/or shadow employment in general. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that despite the known methodological limitations, the authors have developed, successfully tested, and recommended to experts a new effective approach to the study of agency employment (and borrowed labor) in Russia in the context of the lack of quantitative and/or qualitative data on this form of employment.