ПРОЕКЦІЇ РЕЖИМУ ОПАДІВ ДЛЯ ТЕРИТОРІЇ УКРАЇНИ В НАЙБЛИЖЧЕ ТРИДЦЯТИРІЧЧЯ

Abstract

This study presents possible changes in the number of days per year with precipitation ≥ 1 mm for the territory of Ukraine in relation to the period 1961-1990, based on data from an ensemble of CORDEX models created to study the global climate based on an assessment of climate trends at the regional level. In the article, calculations were performed using one of the four possible scenarios for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, which serve as the basis for modern scientific research on future climate projections, namely RCP4.5. This trajectory predicts a steady increase in radioactive forcing compared to the pre-industrial era and a peak in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030-50. For the calculation, the indicators of 177 meteorological stations of our country and 16 simulations of the above project were used. To assess climate change, climate indicators are usually used, such as average annual, seasonal and monthly average values of climatic elements (air temperature, wind direction and speed, precipitation, etc.). However, at the beginning of this century, in order to supplement traditional climatic indicators, scientists developed a system of quantitative indicators for monitoring, analyzing and evaluating changes in extreme climatic indicators, based on daily averages of meteorological observations, called “extremity indices”. The study is based on the calculation of one of the above-mentioned indices, namely the climate index RR1 – the number of “wet days”, that is, the number of days with a daily precipitation of more than 1 mm. The article analyzes the typical precipitation regime for Ukraine and its predicted changes, taking into account regional characteristics. The study revealed a tendency to increase the number of wet days per year from 10 cases in the south-west of the country to 50 on the slopes of the Ukrainian Carpathians and a change in the localization of the driest region from Kherson to Odessa region. There is also an increase in the minimum and maximum values of the number of days with precipitation (by 14 and 8 cases, respectively). From the foregoing, we can assume a change in the nature of moisture supply in the next thirty years for the whole of Ukraine. An increase in the number of days with precipitation is expected throughout the study area, especially in the north and west, and a change in the location of the most arid regions.