Структурні зрушення: вплив на продуктивність і зростання економіки України

The leading feature of the modern world has been the deep structural shifts caused by radical transformations of its industrial landscape. The corresponding transformations were caused by changes in the internal structure of national industrial sectors and were based on the technologies of the "fourth industrial revolution", whose emergence gave additional impetus to the structural transformation of the world economy, intensifying competition in global markets. The Covid crisis was a catalyst for accelerating changes in the intersectoral proportions of the world economy, complicating the existing structural problems. The study shows that the key feature of the model of structural changes that occurred in Ukraine's economy after the global financial crisis was the accelerated reduction of the industrial sector, especially the loss of potential of the processing industry, its technological simplification and narrowing the variety of industries. This was accompanied by increased dominance of the tertiary sector and the growth of the primary sector. Excessive share in the structure of production is occupied by industries, whose mode of reproduction is able to generate only relatively low rates of economic growth (mining and related industries of primary processing in industry and agriculture). Such a trend of structural shifts is not able to generate the necessary boost of economic growth, and much less so as it is burdened by the risks of deepening structural inconsistency of Ukraine’s economy with the cardinal changes taking place in the world economy. Comparison of parameters and trends of structural changes in Ukraine’s economy and in a comparable group of countries and the world as a whole shows that the changes in the structure of Ukraine’s economy were much higher, but did not create sufficient potential for sustainable economic growth. The author analyzes the gaps in labor productivity between economic activities and sectors of Ukraine’s economy, as well as changes in their dynamics, which leads to the conclusions about the relationship between the rates of technological development of different sectors of Ukraine’s economy and the gradual slowdown of the already imperfect technological development of this country’s industry with further loss of competitiveness. Estimated the degree of influence of such factors as investments and technological innovations, as well as shifts in the structure of employment on the increase of labor productivity in Ukraine’s economy. Using the apparatus of econometric modeling, the author evaluates the dependence of the dynamics of GDP growth on the change of the indices of the physical volume of GVA in the sectors of this country’s economy.

Deep structural shifts have been the leading feature of the modern world. The study considers the parameters and causes of structural change in the Ukrainian economy, as well as the relationship between structural change on the one hand, and labor productivity and economic growth on the other. The study shows that the accelerated reduction of the industrial sector, its technological simplification and narrowing the variety of industries were the key features of the structural changes model that occurred in Ukraine's economy after the global financial crisis. This was accompanied by increased dominance of the tertiary sector and the growth of the primary sector. Such a trend of structural shifts is not able to generate the necessary boost of economic growth. Comparison of parameters and trends of structural changes in Ukraine’s economy and in a comparable group of countries and the world as a whole shows that the changes in the structure of Ukraine’s economy were more intensive, but did not create sufficient potential for sustainable economic growth. The author analyzes the gaps in labor productivity between economic activities and sectors of Ukraine’s economy, as well as changes in their dynamics, which leads to the conclusions about the relationship between the rates of technological development of different sectors of Ukraine’s economy and the gradual slowdown of the already imperfect technological development of this country’s industry. Using the apparatus of econometric modeling, the author evaluates the dependence of the dynamics of GDP growth on the change of the indices of GVA in the sectors of this country’s economy.

The authors conducted a sectoral measuring the performance of SMEs sample of the Odessa region for 2013-2019. The study found that all absolute and relative performance indicators increased. However, given the inflation rate for the period under review, the real level of absolute value-added decreased. The growth of absolute efficiency, i.e. the share of value-added in the price of goods and services SMEs was low (by 4.1%), but against the background of the crisis in the economy, this fact is positive and indicates an improvement in the ability of SMEs to create value-added. It was also found that during the studied period in the sectoral structure of performance of SMEs there were significant changes, which were manifested, in particular, in the change of leaders from transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities in 2013 to financial and insurance activities in 2019. Increase in performance for the entire sample in 2019 was due to two industries - financial and insurance activities and the processing industry. In addition, during the study period there was a reduction in the spread of performance scopes, i.e. equalization of performance within each industry. The authors found a certain paradox, which is that the increase in the labor productivity at SMEs leads to a reduction in the value-added of products (services) they produce. This paradox is called by the authors as "opposite effect", which is a phenomenon of atypical influence of individual components on the business performance. Moreover, it was reinforced by the atypical link between salaries and labor productivity, which appeared in 2019, and shows that wage growth not only does not stimulate an increase in labor productivity, but, on the contrary, leads to its reduction with a high degree of probability. Hence, the industries in which SMEs paid employees the highest salaries in 2019 had the lowest level of labor productivity and, conversely, the industries with the lowest salaries had the highest labor productivity among other industries studied. Thus, the features of the forming the performance of SMEs are the identified general trends in its dynamics, structural changes and a certain paradox, which is the atypical impact of labor and salary on performance and productivity in this sector of Ukraine's economy.

Annotation. The aim of the work is to substantiate the areas of energy saving potential management of the industrial sector of the national economy. To achieve this goal, the methods of economic and mathematical modeling were used and a function was obtained that reflects the relationship of structural changes with the energy intensity of Ukraine's GDP. The assessment of the energy saving potential in Ukrainian industry by structural and technical factors allowed to prove a positive impact not only on the energy efficiency of industrial production, but also to determine the potential reduction of energy intensity of the country's GDP by supply of primary energy resources. Thus, structural shifts in the economy of Ukraine towards reducing the share of industrial production and increasing the share of services in the field of information technology, scientific and technical activities, lower rates of primary energy supply compared to GDP, it is possible to achieve target energy efficiency targets by 2030. The result of the research is to determine the potential reduction of energy intensity of the country's GDP by the supply of primary energy resources as a result of structural and technical changes (reduction of industrial production and increasing the share of services in information technology, science and technology, lower primary energy supply GDP, modernization of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning technologies by reducing coal consumption). The scientific novelty of the study is to improve methods of analysis and forecasting of energy saving potential in industrial production of Ukraine. Improving the technical characteristics of industrial production will significantly reduce the share of coal and natural gas savings. In the sectoral context, the greatest potential for energy savings in industry is to modernize technologies for the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning by reducing coal consumption. A significant share of potential energy saving technologies is made by the processing industry mainly due to the reduction of natural gas consumption at metallurgical enterprises. The practical significance of the study is determined by further development of appropriate management measures that can affect energy efficiency of Ukraine's industrial sector.

Today, the war in Ukraine, caused by the armed aggression of the Russian Federation and with the assistance of the Republic of Belarus against Ukraine, has led to difficulties and problems in all areas of the national economy of Ukraine, including in the field of construction. In the context of a Russіa’s full-scale war agaіnst Ukraіne, an increased level of danger and risks, a halt in the construction of many buildings and structures at different stages of their existence, numerous destroyed and damaged houses and premises, an increase in the cost of building materials, energy resources, transport costs, as well as a shortage of labor are one of the most important factors leading to a drop in construction volumes. Considering the above, the purpose of the article is to study trends and problems in the field of construction of Ukraine in the war conditions. Based on the analysis of analytical data, it was noted that from May 10 to June 8, 2022, the total losses of the economy of Ukraine due to damage to physical infrastructure increased by $9.6 billion, and the destruction and damage of residential buildings during this period amounted to 8.4 million square meters. In the context of this, it was found out that the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has simplified permit and registration procedures in construction in the conditions of martial law by adopting Resolution No. 722 dated June 24, 2022. It has been established that the current state of the construction sector in Ukraine needs to be improved, especially in the field of housing stock, since the losses for the economy of Ukraine from the Russian- Ukrainian war, as of early July 2022, are quite high. The conclusion was also formulated that the restoration of the construction sector in Ukraine should be carried out through the development and implementation of appropriate measures at the state level, with the financial support of foreign partner states. Here, the involvement of foreign experts and leading specialists of Ukraine is of particular importance for strengthen the potential of construction companies (in particular, financial and personnel potentials), for take into account security issues and risks in the future. It was determined that further research should be conducted in the direction of finding practical ways to restore the construction sector in Ukraine, including the housing stock, in wartime and post-war times.

Purpose. To provide quantification of industry-specific structural shifts in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term perspective as a result of the structural policies application. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is economic and mathematical modelling using the computable general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Methods of analysis and synthesis were used in systematization and generalization of modelling results. The study on the theoretical basis of the GTAP model was carried out using the system method. Findings. The influence of structural policy instruments of the state on the dynamics of economic development in Ukraine is analyzed using the applied general equilibrium model GTAP. The essence and peculiarities of functioning of computable general equilibrium models, scope of their application in the analysis of structural changes in the economy are revealed. Using the GTAP model, the macroeconomic and sector-structural effects of the implementation of a number of structural policy measures in Ukraine have been quantified, including: exemption from payment of import duties on innovative equipment for processing industry manufacturers; preferential insurance and export crediting through an export credit agency; foreign trade facilitation; exemption of industrial park residents from payment of some direct taxes and fees (VAT, land tax, infrastructure levy). Positive economic effect of the proposed measures in structural and macroeconomic dimensions is argued. The impact of domestic economy restructuring on the dynamics of socio-economic development and general welfare of the population is estimated. Originality. A methodical approach to quantitative assessment of macroeconomic and sectoral-structural effects in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term using the applied model of general equilibrium GTAP is proposed. It is revealed that in the medium term, the aggregate effect of the structural policy measures is 11.4% of GDP growth, both due to intensification of business activity as a whole and due to more efficient use of resources and factors of production in the more productive sectors of the national economy. Among the measures considered, the greatest structural effect is observed as a result of the development of a network of real-life industrial parks in Ukraine. At the same time, structural tariff policy has the lowest potential for economic growth, although it remains an important element in improving manufacturers access to innovative equipment. Practical value. The results obtained can be used as a scientific substantiation of reforms in the industrial and foreign trade policy of Ukraine, aimed at ensuring qualitative structural shifts in the domestic economy.

The monograph is dedicated to the development of theoretical and methodological support for enhancing the capacity of Ukraine's economy for sustainable functioning in the context of global instability. Within the scope of the research conducted, the essence, content, and characteristics of the adaptive potential of the real sector of the country's economy have been defined; a methodological approach for assessing structural imbalances in the real sector of Ukraine's economy has been developed; disproportions and imbalances in the real sector have been identified, as well as between the material production sector and the services sector in Ukraine's economy; analytical support has been created to determine and evaluate the impact of imbalances and disproportions in the real sector on its adaptive potential; recommendations for enhancing the adaptive potential of Ukraine's economy by reducing disproportions and achieving a balanced structure of the real sector have been formulated. The monograph may be useful for scientists and practitioners engaged in issues related to the functioning of the real sector of Ukraine's economy.

Shadow economy growth in Ukraine as a negative factor of its development

Із прискоренням глобалізаційних процесів міцність зв’язку між аграрним виробництвом і сільськими територіями зростає, змінюється співвідношення в структурі інститутів впливу в бік фінансового забезпечення збалансованого економічного, соціального й екологічного розвитку цього складного системного утворення. Незважаючи на зростаючий у пошукових працях дослідний інтерес до питань фінансування сільського господарства, аналіз інституціональних основ забезпечення фінансування сталого розвитку, які враховують багатогранний характер інституціональних механізмів його здійснення у аграрній сфері, обмежений.
 Мета роботи – обґрунтувати теоретико-методологічні та прикладні засади інституційного забезпечення фінансування сталого розвитку аграрної сфери України.
 Визначено ключові підходи до формування інституційного забезпечення фінансування сталого розвитку аграрної сфери. Вважаємо, що інституційне забезпечення фінансування сталого розвитку аграрної сфери – це сукупність соціально-економічних, організаційних і законодавчих заходів органів влади та суб’єктів господарювання (сукупності державних і недержавних інститутів) у сфері фінансових відносин, які формують необхідні правові, організаційні та економічні умови для ефективного залучення, накопичення і використання фінансових ресурсів для досягнення запланованого динамічного соціально-еколого-економічного ефекту. Подано складники інституційного забезпечення фінансування сталого розвитку аграрної сфери.
 Проаналізовано стан аграрної сфери України за 2000–2013 рр. та оцінено тісноту зв’язку між обсягами інвестиційного забезпечення і рівнем розвитку національної економіки (ВВП) й аграрної сфери (ВП с.-г). Виявлено, що зростання обсягу інвестицій в основний капітал на 1 млн грн сприяло зростанню ВВП національної економіки України на 60,9 млн грн. У той час як збільшення інвестицій в основний капітал сільського господарства на 1 млн грн обумовило приріст валової продукції сільського господарства на 7,9 млн грн. До джерел фінансування аграрної сфери, які мають тісний зв’язок із розвитком аграрної сфери (коефіцієнт кореляції дорівнює 0,94), належать прямі іноземні інвестиції, але вони не чинять суттєвого впливу на зростання валового продукту сільського господарства (зростання на 1 млн дол. США стимулювало зростання на 0,14 млн грн). В аграрній сфері інвестиційна діяльність як внутрішніх, так і зовнішніх інвесторів залишається другорядною, суми інвестованих інвестиційних ресурсів не відповідають необхідним обсягам.
 Запропоновано створення інноваційно орієнтованого кластера аграрної сфери, удосконалення кредитного механізму та механізму державного регулювання в контексті її сталого розвитку.
 Цінність дослідження полягає у визначенні тісноти зв’язку між обсягами інвестиційного забезпечення і рівнем розвитку національної економіки (ВВП) та аграрної сфери (ВП с.-г). Практичне використання наведених у цій статті рекомендацій із корегування проекту Концепції «Державна програма сталого сільського розвитку України на період до 2025 року» дозволить оптимізувати фінансовий механізм державної підтримки сталого розвитку аграрної сфери України.
 Перспективний напрямок досліджень – вивчення та оцінка можливостей застосування іноземного досвіду в оптимізації складників інституційного забезпечення фінансування сталого розвитку аграрної сфери України.

Purpose.To determine the role of digital infrastructure in the context of the digital transformation of Ukraine and to analyze the possibilities of applying blockchain technologies. Methodology. To achieve the set goal, various research methods, including analysis and synthesis for illuminating the economic essence of digital infrastructure, were employed as well as statistical methods for analyzing global trends in information and communication technology development. Inductive, deductive, and abstract-logical methods were used to support the conclusions. Findings. The research results encompass several significant findings. Firstly, various definitions of the digital economy were analyzed, leading to the proposal of an original definition that takes into account the peculiarities of the Ukrainian context and aligns with contemporary trends in digital technology development. Key sectors of economic activity were highlighted where the implementation of digital technologies holds the greatest potential within the context of digital transformation. Special attention was given to sectors where the use of digital tools can have a decisive impact on the development and competitiveness of enterprises. The authors emphasized strategic tasks and instruments that would facilitate the creation of a conducive environment for the development of the digital economy in Ukraine. Additionally, the essence of blockchain technology was studied, and potential areas of its application in Ukraine were discussed. Significant focus was placed on aspects of ensuring cybersecurity and data protection, which are critical in the context of blockchain utilization. Originality. The introduced original definition of the digital economy places a primary emphasis on the implementation and actual utilization of digital technologies across various spheres of human activity. A comprehensive set of measures for the development of digital infrastructure in Ukraine was proposed, including the enhancement of legislative regulation, creation of favorable conditions for the IT sector to accelerate the adoption and implementation of innovative solutions, development of digital infrastructure, coordination between educational and industrial sectors, nationwide Internet coverage to ensure equal opportunities for all citizens, attracting foreign investments, and utilizing blockchain technology for data protection (a critical aspect of state governance) and the intensification of digitizing administrative and public services. Practical value. The obtained research results can serve as the basis for the creation of necessary institutional frameworks, fostering the further advancement of the information technology sector in Ukraine. This can be particularly beneficial for the development of the production of goods and provision of services geared towards innovation and quality improvement. Establishing an effective digital economy in Ukraine requires not only technological innovations but also appropriate institutional frameworks that support this process. Such development will enhance the country’s competitiveness on the international stage and contribute to the improvement of citizens’ quality of life. Ultimately, the establishment of an effective digital economy in Ukraine opens up new opportunities for innovative growth and national development.

The paper is devoted to the analysis of the knowledge transfer in two leading sectors of green economy in Ukraine – green energy and organic agriculture. Both sectors are of growing importance for the world economy, especially in the context of the need to fight global warming and to increase high quality food supply. Statistical data on functioning of these sectors in Ukraine shows that both sectors are developing very fast, both in terms of production outputs and number of the business.
 That is why analysis is based on the patent data derived from the Espacenet database. The database provides information on patent according to CPC, which better meets the need of green economy analysis. We used OECD patent search strategy for the following areas: wind energy; solar thermal energy; hydroenergy; PV energy; fuel from waste; agriculture; nuclear energy; marine energy; bio-organic fraction processing; biofuels; hydrogen; solar thermal-PV hybrids; superconducting electric elements; geothermal energy.
 The analysis shows that ties between different organizations, involved in development of green economy within the country are weak. Even in the most developed subsectors, namely wind, solar thermal energy and hydroenergy patent activity of commercial firms are extremely low.
 This could be explained by technological backwardness, relatively small domestic markets for corresponding products and limited access to the foreign markets, existing of other channels for knowledge transfer. It was revealed paradox situation, when the number of scientific outputs related to green economy was growing up, while patent activity was declining. It means that current IPR and knowledge transfer system is not efficient in Ukraine and needs to be improved. 
 The paper is structures as follows. In the first part of the paper a brief description of green economy sectors of Ukraine is presented. It is followed by general situation with IPR in Ukraine. The third part is devoted to the analysis of green patenting in the country in recent years with the focus of networking between different actors. Conclusions contain final assessment of the situation and general recommendations for further innovation-based development of the green economy in Ukraine.

The article elaborates upon development trends in the economy of Ukraine taking into account structural shifts. Herewith it is proposed a stagewise procedure for the analysis of development trends of the country’s economy taking into account structural changes in industry and employment by sectors of economic activity. The authors present an indicator of structural shifts and evaluate efficiency of structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. In general, the structural shifts efficiency estimation shows that they are not effective in the Ukrainian economy, as the share of the services sector is increasing, while the productivity is growing more rapidly in the industry. The use of the presented analysis procedure will allow enhance efficiency of the strategies formulation of the country’s economic development.

The war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic have shown that Ukraine is strongly integrated with global agricultural markets, is of great importance for the world’s food security, and can effectively compete with Poland in exporting to EU markets. Contrary to Poland, the agri-food sector in Ukraine has not yet been the subject of research using input–output tables. The input–output model has many advantages in studying the structures of individual sectors and their connections with other sectors of the economy and with foreign countries. Therefore, the current study fills the existing research gap. The aim of the article is a comparative analysis of the agri-food sectors in Ukraine and Poland in 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic) using the input–output model. The data source is the OECD TiVA database. The main conclusion is that Poland is further along the path of agricultural and food sector development than Ukraine. The study also reveals that in terms of value, the agri-food sector in Ukraine is significantly smaller than in Poland, but it is more important in the Ukrainian economy, with agriculture being its dominant link, while in Poland it is the food industry. The Polish agri-food sector is characterized by a higher import dependency of gross output. Exports play a significant role in the distribution of the gross output of Ukraine’s agriculture and Poland’s food industry. However, the export directions differed significantly. Poland exported mainly to the EU, while Ukraine exported to Asian and Middle Eastern countries.

The article presents the results of a monitoring of the key parameters of the institutional sectors in Ukraine's economy, united by the author in a macrostructural institutional scoreboard (MIS). The monitoring starts with fixing the changes: in the deficit/surplus of each of the institutional sectors, in external debt for each sector and economy as a whole, sectoral distribution of gross disposable income, gross savings and gross fixed capital accumulation, which allows assessing the fundamental structural changes at the level of economic sectors and the safety of GDI levels of each of them, taking into account the basic preconditions for GDP growth. In addition, the scoretable represents indicators of the GDI components for each institutional sector that reveal the factors behind the increase/decrease of the share of sectors' GDI in total GDI, which allows determining the political factor that has caused the corresponding macro-structural changes and assessing the nature of their impact. The monitoring also uses important indicators to identify price effects on the reallocation of income between sectors, such as consumer price index, basic consumer price index, some of their components, price terms of trade, lending to institutional sectors, etc. Consequently, it covers both macroeconomic structures, and developments in individual institutional sectors and in the economy as a whole, which can signal the danger of crisis events.

The article highlights three main factors that influence the forecast of the consumption of energy in the economy of Ukraine. These are structural shifts in its economy, changes in the structure of energy consumption in Ukraine, and volumes and directions of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the conditions of compliance with international emission limitations. The conservative scenario of the development of the country's economy is considered. It predicts a moderate recovery, with the economy growing at 2.5 % per year. This pace has been chosen under the condition of the continuation of russia's armed aggression against Ukraine and the end of the active phase of hostilities by the end of 2025. The change in the structure of the economy during russia's military aggression against Ukraine was studied. The directions of further development of key sections of the economy have been determined. Strategic measures to reduce GHG emissions are highlighted, primarily in industry and in the energy sector in particular. Reducing fuel consumption by types of industrial sectors in Ukraine will be achieved through the introduction of energy-efficient technologies and processes aimed at reducing energy consumption in production, by switching to the use of more ecological energy sources, such as renewable energy sources; modernization of industrial facilities and equipment to reduce fuel consumption; implementation of energy saving and energy efficiency promotion programs in industry; reforming the energy sector and increasing energy efficiency in general. According to the updated nationally defined contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement in 2021, the country committed to achieving a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 35 % from the 1990 level by 2030 and switching to energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. Keywords: structure of the economy, energy resources, structure of energy consumption, forecasting, greenhouse gases.