Китайско-индийское соперничество в Евразии: возможности и риски для России

Abstract

In modern world China-India relations become one of the core factors in the context of transformation of the regional and global security architecture. Both countries have colossal economic, demographic and military potential, while relations between them are full of contradictions, rivalries and mutual distrust. If confrontation is unavoidable, then by what means and methods will it be implemented, and if the contradictions are solvable – how and under what circumstances? To outline the possible alternatives and scenarios, assess them from the standpoint of Russia's national interests – is the purpose of the study. Within the framework of this problematic, the author of the article for the first time in domestic scientific discourse turns to the methodology of constructivism, in particular, to the theory of securitization. It is argued that, under conditions of mutual distrust, securitization and historical memory in the Indian-Chinese relations are among the factors of the continuing confrontation between the two countries. However, given to the inevitability of competition, the strategies, forms and variations of such competition are manifold, which implies both new opportunities and risks for Russia. The first part of the paper is devoted to a brief review of the study of Indian-Chinese relations problematic in domestic and foreign discourse, as well as the introduction of the methodological framework of the study. The second part contains the results of analysis of securitization discourses in India and China, as well as the scenarios developed on the basis of the data obtained. In the final part of the study, an author's interpretation of the results of the work is presented; an assessment of each scenario is given from the standpoint of national interests, opportunities and risks for Russia. It is assumed that the constructivist methodology can be effective in the field of future studies and the proposed scenarios may be improved and expanded in the future.