Jets, Flags, and a New Cold War?

Abstract

Russia's interest in the Arctic shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Since 1991, post-Soviet Russia has pursued a foreign policy course that was based upon a fairly narrow calculation of its national interest. By necessity, Russia has had to forego grand discussions of its new identity and place in the world in favour of a more practical assessment of its basic economic and security needs in a world that, arguably, still has not figured out what it wants from Russia.Numerous accounts of Russian foreign policy in the 1990s under President Boris Yeltsin (1991-99) note the pragmatic nature of foreign policy decisions. Foreign policy decisions were often made on an issueby-issue basis, rather than according to some grand design or a clear conceptualization of Russia's national interest. Little appears to have changed today; in fact, foreign policy has arguably become more pragmatic. However this pragmatism has in recent years been accompanied by an unapologetic tone that has been observed by western governments. Russia's new-found assertiveness - aggressiveness, by some accounts - has led some analysts to decry a new era of Russia- west relations akin to a new Cold War.Proponents of the new Cold War thesis point to as evidence, among other things, the suppression of freedoms in Russia, its aggressiveness toward Georgia, its strategic use of its natural gas leverage over its neighbours, the Kremlin's direct manipulation of its energy sector and authoritarian management of the Russian economy, Russian suspicion of western motives and more assertive language toward the west (notably, Putin's icy dismissals of western criticisms about Russia's internal political affairs), and its bullying treatment of its Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) neighbours.1For Canada, a couple of recent incidents - the dropping of a Russian flag on the Arctic seabed in 2007 and the presence of a Russian strategic bomber aircraft conducting a surveillance flight near Canadian airspace in 2009 - have reinforced concerns about a new Cold War. The flag incident in particular prompted then-Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Peter MacKay to cry, You can't go around the world these days dropping a flag somewhere. This isn't the 14th or 15th century.2 More recently, Canada's current minister of foreign affairs, Lawrence Cannon, responded dismissively to Russian plans to drop paratroopers at the north pole in commemoration of the first Russian scientists to parachute there in 1949. Cannon scoffed, It seems to me that the Russians are just pulling stunts.3Canada is not the only northern country to be concerned about Russia's intentions. The Norwegians have perceived an escalation in the tactics Russia employs to convey its territorial claims, notably the 2008 decision to resume Russian surface naval patrols near Spitsbergen Island, which is a region long disputed between the two countries. In addition, the Russians have been attracting attention from their northern neighbours for decisions to rebuild their under-ice capabilities (which the Americans have also done); to activate the nuclear reactor on a new post-Cold War ballistic missile-carrying submarine (SSBN); and to commission five SSBNs, two SSNs, and six diesel-powered submarines.4 The precise meaning of these actions is not certain, but it is not hard to see why concern exists about what Russia's motives are.This article asserts that, while the jet and flag incidents may contain some worrying symbolism, Russia is behaving somewhat predictably. Moreover, there is little compelling evidence to suggest that Russia wishes to transform territorial disputes in the Arctic into a northern frontier of a new Cold War. This article takes the view that both former president, now prime minister, Vladimir Putin and current President Dmitry Medvedev have pragmatically identified Russia's national interests and pursued them assertively. Putin has referred to Russia as a sovereign democracy, which implies its ability to pursue its goals on the basis of elite calculations ofthe national interest, rather than be pressured externally to conform to certain standards or expectations. …