Цифровая модель прогнозирования трудоустройства выпускника вуза с учетом поведенческих аспектов

Abstract

Introduction: in modern conditions of labor market adaptation to the new challenges of the digital economy there is a need to search for new analytical tools to assess human behavior in the labor market at different stages of its life cycle. This applies to the applicant’s choice of an educational trajectory (future profession, place of study), as well as the choice of a professional trajectory related or unrelated to the profession received. Objectives: development of a digital model for predicting the employment of a university graduate in the labor market using an agent-based approach. Methods: simulation modeling methods, agent-based approach, system dynamics, analysis, synthesis, sociological research. Results: the proposed model considers the behavior of a job seeker – a university graduate in competition with populations of “Unemployed”, “Migrant” agents applying for vacant positions of agentsenterprises that form the staffing needs of the region. The model was tested in the case of labor market employment of Bashkortostan Republic universities graduates. The forecast data for 2025 have been received on the number of employed university graduates and the number of migrating graduates with no employment; the number of unfilled vacancies, i.e., unsatisfied needs of the labor market has also been determined. Conclusions: the resulting digital model allows to assess the impact of individual state policy measures on changing the professional and qualification imbalance of the market through the assessment of the reactions of specific individuals. Public authorities can use the model to adjust educational or labor policies.