보건위협의 안보화에 따른 국방-보건지출 간 상충관계 발생 요인 분석

Abstract

This study analyzes statistically and empirically whether the emergence of health issues around the world is able to lead to notable change in military security. With the emergence of the concept of human security and rapid increase of health threat around the world after the Post-Cold War, There has been a number of arguments that the significance of military security based on the realist theory would be devalued by the proliferating health security agenda. In particular, there is a traditional perspective within the government expenditure named “guns and butter” theory, a trade-off relationship between defense and welfare, which refers that an increase of spending in an area inevitably leads to a decrease in another area with limited tax revenue. In this context, this study estimates the effect of changes in the proportion of health expenditure on the proportion of defense expenditure by conducting regression analysis for all countries from 2000 to 2019, utilizing the PCSE model. As a result, it was found that a trade-off appeared in countries with low economic development level and military manpower, while there is a positive correlation between both spending in case of having high values. Based on this result, the study conducted an empirical review of six countries of the Asia-Pacific region to determine whether the moderating effect is significant at the individual country level. In this analysis, it turned out that the income level and the number of active military manpower indicates a significant moderating effect. In this regard, the research implies that the level of economic development and the military manpower structure are the factors that would change the relationship between the both expenditures. Throughout the analysis, It suggests that there is compatibility between health and military security concepts as well as that changes in military or economic factors exceed non-traditional security issues in the compilation of a military budget. Ultimately, this study implies it is impossible to grasp the mutual competitiveness in the “gun and butter” debate and it is revealed that the gun overwhelms the butter. Additionally, This accentuates that the suitability of realism is still valid in spite of the emergence of the new security concept.