Оценка мультипликативных эффектов в экономике Дальневосточного федерального округа: межотраслевое моделирование

Abstract

For the Far Eastern constituent entities of the Russian Federation, using the Kronenberg’s Cross-Hauling Adjusted Regionalization Method (CHARM) and its subsequent hybridization, which consists of taking into account the available actual statistical data on foreign trade of the regions, regionalization of national input-output tables for 2019, 2020 was carried out. Estimates were obtained and a decrease in the values of output multipliers was identified for all Far Eastern constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2020, generated by changes in the aggregate final demand for products of specialized industries (with the exception of the production of vehicles and equipment in the Khabarovsk Territory). The largest reductions in multipliers were recorded for the production of coke and petroleum products (Khabarovsk Territory) and fishing and fish farming (Khabarovsk and Primorsky Territories, Sakhalin Region) and were determined by a decrease in consumer demand for fuel and shifts in the structure of intermediate consumption in the fishing industry. Comparable estimates of the dynamics of multiplier effects generated by changes in the volume of final demand for products of specialized industries in the Far Eastern regions were obtained. It is shown that the maximum increase in output in 2019 and 2020 was provided by the food industry of the Primorsky Territory