ПРОБЛЕМИ УПРАВЛІННЯ ДЕРЖАВНИМ БОРГОМ В УМОВАХ КРИЗОВОГО СТАНУ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article analyzes the state budget and expenses related to managing government and governmentguaranteed debt in conditions of an unstable economy. The analysis of economic consequences resulting from the military aggression of the Russian Federation has allowed drawing conclusions about significant changes in the structure of revenues and expenditures of Ukraine's state budget and a deterioration in the country's macroeconomic indicators overall. The increase in the budget deficit in 2022 to a critical level of 17.62% of Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product for the corresponding year resulted in an increase in the country's debt. The decline in production led to changes in the budget revenue structure, with a decrease in the share of tax revenues. Additionally, changes were made to the tax code during the state of war, which softened the tax and fee administration regime. The main focus of the article is on the creation, servicing, and repayment of government debt. The main measures to minimize risks, optimize the structure of government borrowings, and reduce expenses related to their servicing are determined. The functions and responsibilities of the entities responsible for managing government debt are discussed. The methodology for formulating a medium-term strategy for managing government debt is presented. The risk assessment is conducted by determining the expected expenses of the state budget for debt management, considering the risks associated with such management (interest rate, currency, budgetary risks, as well as refinancing and liquidity risks). This article provides a characterization of risks arising from government borrowings. Risk management of government-guaranteed debt is separately examined. When calculating these risks, the volume of government guarantees to gross domestic product and the maximum volume of government guarantees provided are taken into account. The possibilities for managing government debt risks in conditions of a state of war are significantly limited; however, they can be reduced through refinancing debt obligations with long-term maturity securities. Reducing currency risks can be achieved by increasing the share of borrowings in the national currency in the domestic capital market. Based on the conducted research, recommendations are provided regarding government debt management and the revival of crediting small and medium-sized businesses within the framework of providing government guarantees on a portfolio basis.