О результатах исследования волн Кондратьева в экономике Греции и Португалии

Abstract

The article presents the results of the analysis of Greek and Portuguese economic dynamics in order to identify Kondratiev waves, to divide them into periods, and to determine the point of originating ofnew technological modes. in Greek economy,the analysis of the time series of real GDP per capita for 1913–2008 revealed the presence of economic dynamics’cycles with a period of approximately 50 years, which can be identified as Kondratiev cycles (waves).The regression analysis of the time series of Greek and Portuguese real GDP per capita allowed to determine the date of beginning of the fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratiev cycles and the date of origin of the fifth and sixth technological modes in Greek and Portuguese economies. The obtained results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fifth technological mode in both economies occurred in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The results of the research may be used in order to construct models of technological modes’ productivity in Greece and Portugal.