Глобальные рынки передового производства — новая возможность для технологического обновления России

Abstract

New technologies, including Industry 4.0, are rapidly changing traditional and high-tech industries, and forming the advanced manufacturing sector within the industrial complex. By now Russia has been characterized by a modest presence in the world advanced manufacturing markets – Russia’ share is less than 0.6% in certain markets and less than 0.4% in global advanced manufacturing. This is partially explained by the scarce commodity range in the Russian export basket, which determines weak representation of Industry 4.0 goods. Large part in the Russian advanced manufacturing exports is traditional for the Russian economy goods — airplanes, turbojet engines, fuel rods. However, we observe positive structural changes in Russian exports caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia has increased exports of goods with bio- and additive technologies, optoelectronics. It seems that the entry to new advanced manufacturing markets for Russia can form the basis for long-term growth. International experience shows that advanced manufacturing exports are often supported by advanced manufacturing imports. We find that Russian economy significantly underutilizes this channel. Although Russian advanced manufacturing imports are gradually growing, it is focused primarily on final consumer goods. We consider industrial robots as a case of advanced manufacturing imports that deserves special attention as a widespread cross-cutting technology that can significantly transform the technological level of industries. Our estimates show that, although the robotics market in Russia is relatively small and has low growth rates relatively to investment in fixed assets, companies importing industrial robots are larger and more productive. This evidence allows us to determine the import of industrial robotics as one of the priority directions of modernization of the Russian manufacturing. Based on the analysis we identify and discuss three growth opportunities for Russia in global advanced manufacturing: 1) support of exports of services in optoelectronics and ICT through the use of accumulated human capital and competencies and taking into account fast transformation of business models in industry, 2) support of exports of biotechnology products, taking into account positive reputational effects and expanding Russian pharmaceutical exports under the COVID-19 pandemic; 3) support of technology companies in wide number of advanced manufacturing taking into account current favorable environment for the birth of tech startups in Russia.