Управление личным составом пожарно-спасательных гарнизонов с учётом радиационного воздействия

Abstract

Introduction. At present, despite the efforts made by the state, the state of radiation protection does not reach the level at which there is no unacceptable risk of harm to the life or health of people, the environment, the property of individuals and legal entities, state and municipal property on the territory of the Russian Federation in the event of implementation of radiation treats. The readiness of management bodies, forces and means of fire and rescue garrisons to eliminate the consequences of radiation accidents is a very urgent problem. Goals and objectives. The aim of the work is to improve the management of the personnel of fire and rescue garrisons, taking into account the radiation exposure in preparation for liquidation and during the elimination of radiation accidents. Tasks include the creation and justification of a model that allows you to convert the exit risks of the deterministic effects into the risks of stochastic effects. Methods. To create a model for the management of fire and rescue garrisons’ personnel, taking into account the radiation exposure, we used the literature experimental data and used the probabilistic-statistical method and the method of least squares. Results and discussion. The calculated model of management of the fire and rescue garrisons’ personnel, taking into account radiation exposure in preparation for liquidation and in the course of liquidation of radiation accidents, is developed. The probabilistic mathematical model allows us to estimate the exit of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the effective radiation dose. The excellent convergence of the predicted (calculated) value EAR1 = 0,000607 and the statistical value EAR0 = 0,000724 is due to the fact that the reference points LD10 = 2 Gy , LD50/60 = 4 Gy , LD90 = 6 Gy are based on repeatedly verified statistical data on radiation accidents and deaths of more than 1000 people in radiation accidents [1]. This indicates that the mathematical model adequately reflects the exit of stochastic and deterministic effects observed during the operation of nuclear facilities both in normal mode and in radiation accidents. Conclusions. The probability of exit of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the radiation dose received by the personnel of fire and rescue garrisons is presented. The threshold of the stochastic effect for humans is in the vicinity of the equivalent dose of 10 mSv for radiation with low linear energy transfer. At the same time, the probability of a stochastic effect is 3 · 10-6 on average after 15 years. This model of radiation exposure management for the personnel of fire and rescue garrisons could be a good tool for the emergency response manager (fire extinguishing manager) during preparation for the elimination and during the elimination of radiation accidents. Keywords: management, personnel, fire and rescue garrison, radiation exposure, effective radiation dose, risk of death