Майбутнє Північноатлантичного Альянсу в умовах невизначеності та складному геополітичному оточенні

Abstract

On April 4, 2020, the democratic community marked the 71st anniversary of the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. During all this time, NATO has been providing security in the Euro-Atlantic area. All 30 Allies are united by a system of collective defense based on common democratic values and military standards.Our world is changing and NATO is changing with it.What can NATO look like in 2025? Every important aspect of NATO is changing significantly, with the many ups and downs that have taken place since the signing of the Washington Treaty. The Alliance continues to change today and will undoubtedly change even more in the future.The issue of identifying prospects and possible scenarios for NATO's development in the global perspective is given much attention in the works of both domestic and foreign authors and institutions. Many of these articles are normative in nature, addressing the strengths and weaknesses of the Alliance.Recent trends in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in general and in NATO's Strategic Transformation Command in particular call for a closer examination of possible scenarios for the organization's development in the medium and long term.The article is based on an analysis of the Alliance's four strategic areas for the medium and long term (increasing NATO's involvement in global strategic objectives; reviewing the Alliance's relations with the Russian Federation and China; strengthening NATO-EU cooperation; focusing on the Alliance's internal efforts development and solving the problems of NATO member-countries) the following scenarios of its development were proposed: “destructive”, “negative”, “positive” and “realistic”. Which, in our opinion, is a relevant and very important issue for the direction of Ukraine's military policy and Euro-Atlantic integration for the next 5-10 years, and some additional analysis proposed by the authors will determine the prospects of NATO's military relations with Ukraine.