Выбор средства пожаротушения угольных шахт на основе автокорреляционного анализа аварий

Abstract

Purpose. The article describes of facility operation with the production of non-renewable energy resources in the Russian Federation. Based on the issues of ensuring technosphere and fire safety at such facilities the article has analyzed statistical indicators of сoal mines accidents in the country. The results of the analysis were processed by the method of mathematical regression. The presence of autocorrelation in the researched series of dynamics of accidents is defined, that allows establishing true connections of the corresponding series, namely the correlation of series "accident - casualties". The main cause of death in coal mines is not the accident itself, but endogenous fires and emergencies occurring after it. This allows speaking of the need to develop modern means and methods of extinguishing endogenous fires in coal mines. Extinguishing medium to suppress endogenous fires in coal mines is proposed. Methods. The authors have analyzed statistical data on the types of accidents in mines and the number of people who died and suffered as a result of these accidents. To determine the presence of autocorrelation in the studied series of dynamics of accidents in coal mines, methods of regression analysis were used. Findings. It has been established that the main cause of death in coal mines accidents is not collapses and explosions, but endogenous fires. The lack of means to combat this type of fires requires further research in this area. Conclusions on the causes of death in accidents have been drawn and dependence of the number of casualties on the accidents nature has been established. Research application field. The results obtained can be used in the development of new means and methods for extinguishing endogenous fires in coal mines. Conclusions. During a fire in a coal mine, combustion leads to a significant dynamics of oxygen reduction. Based on this fact we can conclude that the high death rate of miners in accidents is due, first of all, to insufficiently effective measures to prevent and extinguish endogenous fires.