Abstract
There is a similarity in dynamics and a quantitative difference in the ice cover regime in four consecutive 30-year periods: 1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, 1991–2020 are noted. The greatest differences are observed in the regime characteristics of the first and the last periods. The absolute maximum or minimum recorded in at least one of the months from January to May determines the nature of the ice cover of the entire ice season. The sensitivity of the predictive physical-statistical model to the replacement of climatic norms has been investigated. Estimates of the quality of forecasts of the average monthly ice cover are obtained. Keywords: base period, long-term forecast, physical and statistical model, ice cover, climate characteristics, typification, forecast skill scores
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