Оценка рисков погодных деривативов для экономической безопасности предприятия: кейс модели Weather-Security VAR

Abstract

Currently weather derivatives have become especially relevant due to climate change and weather disasters. In-experience and lack of practice can lead to such threats as economic security risks that affect all areas of enterprise. This article discusses the problem that weather derivatives, despite their ability to minimize risks, become themselves sources of other risks. There is a theoretical justification of this effect, defined as «risk focus shift». Study purpose is to confirm «derivative’s effect» and justify developed theoretical model using VAR method to assess emerging threats and consequences on enterprise's economic security – Weather-Security VAR. In particu-lar, this model is focused on enterprises in the Far East region, which are currently the most affected by the cli-mate change. The obtained results of study can be used for formation and development of derivative theoretical block. From a practical point of view, the presented model can be used by heads of companies and regional investment operators for assessing the likelihood of weather risks and consequences of threats to economic security.