Модель расчета реакции населения при оповещении об угрозе возникновения опасных метеоусловий

Abstract

Purpose. Emergencies caused by adverse weather conditions can result in fatalities and significant property damage. The consequences can be aggravated by a number of factors: incomplete coverage of population when alerting, untimely notification, negligence of citizens, or ignorance of the rules of behaviour in such situations, etc. The article considers the author’s methods for calculating social effect that occurs when population is notified about the threat of emergencies caused by hazardous weather conditions. Research objective: improving the efficiency of public warning and information system in case of emergencies caused by hazardous weather conditions in order to ensure the required level of safety, including the territory of the Republic of Crimea. Methods. For research purposes the method of regression analysis has been used. The article proposes the criteria that impact the social effect in case of public warning about threat of an emergency. Weight values of the criteria have been determined by means of hierarchy analysis method. Criteria parameters are proposed to be determined by conducting a social experiment. Findings. The definition of the social effect has been given and the criteria that influence its efficiency have been identified, including such criteria as the value of the obtained information; completeness of population coverage; the level of public knowledge on the rules of conduct and others. The mathematical model for evaluating the efficiency of the social effect in case of public warning about the threat of an emergency or an emergency itself caused by hazardous and adverse weather conditions on the basis of the regression analysis has been presented. Research application field. The article has a conceptual character. To test the results it is necessary to carry out a number of social experiments (surveys) directly within the region this model can be applied in. Conclusions. The proposed method makes it possible to objectively assess the social effect when warning population about the threat of an emergency or an emergency itself caused by hazardous and adverse weather conditions. Based on the calculations, it is possible to take measures to increase the level of social effect by bringing this parameter closer to 100 %.