Оценка рисков ратификации Парижского соглашения по климату для транспортного комплекса России

Abstract

The key topics of the Paris Agreement on climate change prevention by way of greenhouse gases emissions regulation, and the risks for the transport industry in case of this agreement ratification have been considered. Using the developed methodology and forecast assessments of the number and structures of vehicle fleets and transport work, has been carried out the assessment of potential reduction for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by all means of transport for the period up to 2030, and measures to this reduction achievement. It has been established that GHG emissions by transport in 2030 can be reduced in comparison with 2015 from 286.0 to 261.2…282.0 million tons of CO2-eq. that is 20…26% more than in 1990. To achieve the target level of GHG emissions by transport in 2030 (70…75% of the 1990 level) is possible only if the entire car fleet of Russia (66.3…73.6 million units) will consist by half of hybrid vehicles and by half of electric ones. The main measures for reaching the stabilization path of GHG emission volumes by the transport complex, and then reducing these volumes by 5…12% in 2030 are follows: introduction of a carbon-based transport tax on all types of vehicles; introduction and tightening of specific (per unit mileage) standards for fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of single vehicles; measures for substitution of transport whose age exceeds 10 … 15 years, by electric cars, hybrids, and vehicles that run on alternative fuels, the use of carbon-free transports in the vehicle fleet. The formed system of GHG emissions regulation should foresee a differentiated approach to various sectors of the economy (taking into account objective differences in their development level, and technological possibilities on GHG emissions reducing), and should not thwart goals of intensive development for economy with gross domestic product growth rates exceeding the world average ones.