Развитие методики оценки финансовых рисков как фактор обеспечения экономической безопасности предприятий

Abstract

Due to the increasing role of financial risks of various nature and orientation, the paper formulates an approach to defining this definition. Financial risks are decomposed in terms of various classification features. The key financial risks in relation to the companies that are representatives of the oil and gas sector as a pivotal sector for the Russian economy have been specified. The analysis of modern approaches to the assessment of fi-nancial risks allows to conclude the priority of using probit- and logit-regression scoring models for these aims due to the high level of accuracy and simplicity of interpretation of their results. Therefore, as part of the re-search, a scoring model has been developed, which provides the possibility of carrying out a comprehensive assessment of financial risk. Based on the analysis of corporate reporting of the leading domestic oil and gas companies, the proposed model was tested and calibrated, its final form and weight coefficients of parameters were determined. The results obtained from the analysis of financial risks make it possible to draw a conclu-sion about the fairness of the model and its high reliability.