Риски для благосостояния в регионах: диагностика и управление (на примере УрФО)

Aleksandr Kuklin,Natalia Nikulina,Aleksandr Tyrsin,Maria Pecherkina

doi:10.14530/se.2018.2.036-051

Abstract

Welfare is one of the indicators that characterizes the functioning of socio-economic system at any level, which is influenced by many factors. It increases the importance of necessity of choice, estimating risks that affect welfare, and managing their influence. The authors view welfare in the region from two viewpoints: an individual and a territory, which implies definition and estimation of risks for each of them. The goal of the study is to estimate the risks to welfare of an individual and a territory, which means solving the following tasks: 1) defining the category ‘risk to welfare of an individual and a territory’; 2) estimating integral risks for the Ural Federal District’s territories; 3) estimating the probability of integral risk reaching critical zone. The methods of study used by the authors: indicative analysis, integration of objective function through Monte Carlo statistical trials method. The object of the study is the regions of the Ural Federal District (subjects of the Russian Federation), timeframe – 2001–2016, information mass – official data of Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Based on the calculations, the authors conclude the following: all regions of the Ural Federal District are in the high-risk zone and have low probability of reaching critical risk zone. The results can be used in managing the risks through development of roadmaps on minimization of risk and probability of aggravation. The proposed measures allow decreasing the integral risk and increasing welfare level of an individual and a territory

Highlights

Государственная помощь малоимущим1. Повышение МРОТ до уровня 60% сред- ных доходов населения к ней зарплаты. 2. Заключение социальных контрактов. с 2016 г. по сценариям: 3. Налоговые льготы для граждан с зарпла- оптимистичный – на 5%; той ниже прожиточного минимума оптимальный – на 2,6%; пессимистический – на 0,2% 1. Пропаганда здорового образа жизни. 2. Повышение качества проведения диспансеризации. 3. Развитие инноваций в медицине
The study was conducted with the financial support of Russian Science Foundation, project No 14-18-00574 ‘Information-analytical system ‘Anti-crisis: diagnostics of the regions, risk assessment and scenario forecast aimed at preservation and reinforcement of economic security and increasing Russian welfare’ (IAS ‘Anti-crisis’)
Welfare is one of the indicators that characterizes the functioning of socio-economic system at any level, which is influenced by many factors. It increases the importance of necessity of choice, estimating risks that affect welfare, and managing their influence

Summary

Государственная помощь малоимущим

1. Повышение МРОТ до уровня 60% сред- ных доходов населения к ней зарплаты. 2. Заключение социальных контрактов. с 2016 г. по сценариям: 3. Налоговые льготы для граждан с зарпла- оптимистичный – на 5%; той ниже прожиточного минимума оптимальный – на 2,6%; пессимистический – на 0,2% 1. Пропаганда здорового образа жизни. 2. Повышение качества проведения диспансеризации. 3. Развитие инноваций в медицине.

Улучшение состояния окружающей среды

Мобилизация налогов и сборов за счет

Привлечение альтернативных источников финансирования заимствований

Пересмотр потребительской корзины пенсионера с учетом платных услуг