기후변화에 기인한 연안 수온상승에 따른 연안 어류의 바이러스성 질병 발생 예측

Abstract

The impact of global warming on aquatic systems has been a priority research area in the past decade. However, the possibility that increased temperatures will cause shifts in viral disease outbreaks has not been well addressed. In the present study, with increasing water temperature (WT) in the coastal area of Korea, we estimated the possibility of changes in fish viral diseases. From the present time, WT may rise between 0.62 and <TEX>$1.7^{\circ}C$</TEX> by 2050, and the effect on aquaculture could be more adverse than benefitial. Red seabream iridovirus disease (RSIVD) and viral nervous necrosis (VNN) cause high mortality above 22 and <TEX>$24^{\circ}C$</TEX>, respectively, and outbreaks could commence earlier and persist for prolonged periods. Nevertheless, the period of occurrence of viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS), which outbreaks at a lower WT (< <TEX>$18^{\circ}C$</TEX>), could be shorter than the current infectious period. Thermal stress in fish causes reductions in growth and immunocompetence; thus, increases in summer WT can lead to the development of new viral diseases. WT has a strong influence on fish population dynamics; therefore, entry of new viruses and changes in the prevalence of infection can be expected if carrier fishes are introduced or migrate to Korean waters.