Индийско-китайские отношения: борьба «тигра» и «дракона» за место под солнцем

Abstract

The article analyzes the current state of India-China relations, their main elements and prospects. We identify key factors strengthening bilateral India-China cooperation including the high level of political interaction, institutional framework of the relations, common approaches to solving the core issues on the international agenda and extensive economic ties. We also study the main fields of confrontation between India and China which include territorial disputes, fight for access to water and energy resources and rivalry for regional and global influence. The article identifies the elements that undermine the established system of the relations, especially mutual enmity between the states, imbalances in their trade, the third parties’ policies in Asia, divergent stances on some regional and international issues which are crucial for both countries, as well as the spreading COVID-19 infection – a new factor in the international politics and economy. We conclude that India-China relations are characterized by ambiguity and controversy. On the one hand, they have a solid political and economic foundation, but, on the other, they are complicated by a wide range of old and new problems that do not allow the sides to build effective cooperation in many spheres. We also provide a characterization of India-China ‘forced partnership’ and focus on the phenomenon of securitization of bilateral economic interaction. The paper pays particular attention to the assessment of complementarity of the two countries’ economic systems. It analyzes the prospects of India-China cooperation, opportunities for deepening their ties in trade and investments, energy sphere, science and technology, culture and interpersonal relations. We have also considered the possibility of the confrontation escalation in a range of relations fields into an open military conflict and assessed whether existing differences and mutual claims can impact future development of the ties between India and China. The conclusion underlines both disinterest of both sides in a full-scale war and unpredictability of India’s and China’s behavior in the conditions of instability in the international and regional arena.