Recognize New Realities

Abstract

[ 18 ] asia policy “It is not useful to speak of ‘American leadership’ in Asia. Asians do not wish to be ‘led’ by the United States, and it is paternalistic to assume so. It is better to pursue egalitarian ‘partnerships,’ both rhetorical and real.” • Recognize New Realities David Shambaugh When contrasted with strained or neglected U.S. relations with Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Russia, Asia policy during the Bush years was a relative success story. The new administration’s Asia team has inherited a region where several things are going right—particularly the amelioration of tensions across the Taiwan Strait and between China and Japan. U.S.-China relations are also on generally sound footing, while relations with India have never been better and ties with Southeast Asia are improving. The United States’ five alliances in the region have also been strengthened during the Bush years. The region is at peace and economic growth remains robust. Inheriting such a good situation, should the new administration then formulate its policy toward Asia around a reiteration of the standard “four pillars” heard from all incoming administrations: strengthen alliances, promote free trade, enhance democracy and human rights, and control WMD? Remaining on autopilot, even with minor adjustments, would be a mistake. I would counsel that there have been a number of important changes across the region in recent years that the new administration needs to understand and use as a basis for making, as necessary, more than minor adjustments to U.S. policy. The first new reality is that the most important actor in Asia today is China. This is not to suggest that the United States should abandon its alliance with Japan, nor that there exists a complete commonality of interests between Washington and Beijing as there is between Washington and Tokyo. But on a variety of levels and by a number of indicators, China now matters more to the United States and should be elevated to the top position among U.S. regional priorities. Second, and concomitantly, the considerable improvement in ChinaJapan relations over the past two years offers twin opportunities. First, it david shambaugh is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University. He can be reached at . [ 19 ] special roundtable • advising the new u.s. president offers an opportunity for Japan to play an increased regional role in concert with China, as envisioned in the joint communiqué of April 2008. This would be good for Japan, for Asia, and for the United States: a Japan that remains hesitant and uncertain of its regional role while tethered solely to the United States is not conducive to regional stability. Second, the SinoJapanese rapprochement illustrates the new importance of triangular ties among Beijing, Tokyo, and Washington. The new administration should give serious consideration to holding a summit of the three leaders every year or two. The third reality is that the region is so important and so complex that it needs a full-time assistant secretary of state for Asia, while the State Department needs to reorganize itself into a single broad Bureau of Asian Affairs, encompassing East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia as well as the Pacific. Thus, in the new administration this assistant secretary position needs to be decoupled from the North Korean issue—where a full-time special emissary should be appointed. Relatedly, senior U.S. officials need to visit the region, and regularly. This includes the president, whose annual trip to APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) while piggybacking on a couple of bilateral state visits is far from adequate. The new president also should host several Asian heads of state at the White House every year. The fourth new reality is the emerging multilateral architecture in the region. Other than APEC, the United States has largely stood on the sidelines and absented itself from many of the newly emerging institutions, which it has dismissed as being too process-oriented and lacking substance and enforcement mechanisms. The new administration should sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, thus qualifying the United States for membership in the East Asia Summit; work to strengthen the ASEAN Regional Forum...