СОСТОЯНИЕ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ АРМЯНО-РОССИЙСКИХ ВЗАИМООТНОШЕНИЙ: ПОСТПРОТЕСТНОЕ ВОСПРИЯТИЕ В АРМЯНСКОМ ОБЩЕСТВЕ

Abstract

Assessment of current trends and perspectives of Armenian-Russian relations as reflected by public perception in Armenia is the main issue of the paper presented. The “Velvet Revolution” in Spring 2018 in Armenia followed by post-protest public discourse on priorities in domestic and foreign policy, serves as a context for the study. Facebook as the most popular social network in Armenia and the main platform for public discourse during and after “Velvet Revolution”, also served as a technical tool for the dissemination of the survey questionnaire among Armenian Facebook users, as well as for data collection via SurveyMonkey Enterprise 12 software. Among the major aims of the study are: 1) public assessment of strengths and weaknesses in the current Armenian-Russian relations; 2) assessment of effectiveness of bilateral relations in various fields of cooperation; 3) public attitudes toward perspectives of cooperation with pro-Russian and pro-Western regional organizations and initiatives for Armenia (EAEU, CSTO, EU, NATO); 4) assessment of certain determinants which might affect current trends in Armenian-Russian relations in either positive or negative way, including personal involvement of the protest and post-protest leader of Armenia N. Pashinyan; 5) risk assessment regarding possible worsening of strategic relations between Armenia and Russia. According to the public perceptions it is still unclear whether the new elite in Armenia follows the same traditional level of relationship with Russia or prefers the pro-Western direction, but most of respondents are proved to be unsatisfied with the current state of affairs with Russia. At the same time, Armenian participation in the EU initiatives is seen as promising. Public critics of Armenian-Russian relations used to be a structural element of the main critics of the former ruling elites and a part of the protesting public discourse during “Velvet Revolution”; it is still actively circulated in the post-protest public discourse. Some conclusions and recommendations are drawn from the research data. In particular, taking into account that the foreign policy of the new political elites in Armenia still seems unclear to society, it is recommended to focus the policies not on elites but on the channels of direct communication between the two nations through wider and involving informational, cultural, educational, youth and economic initiatives.