Биологическая продуктивность великих озер России: сравнение результатов моделирования и натурных наблюдений

Abstract

Results of analysis of the mass-balance model simulating biotic energy flows in the great lakes of Russia –Ladoga, Onego and Baikal- ecosystems have been presented. Season-average biomass and annual production of prime producers, reducers and consumers including fish have been forecasted. Permissible fish catch has been assessed. The model data were compared with the field observations results. Importance of the great lakes of Russia researches with the use of the mass-balance model is stipulated by their size and value as the biggest and Europe, besides, Lake Baikal is the greatest water body of the world in terms of the fresh water stock. Determination of these lakes’ trophic status is of primary importance for water quality assessment and for prediction their total biological productivity, fish productivity and permissible fish catch. This is possible only provided application of the balance-energy approach based on the knowledge of regularities of the organic matter and energy transfer through the ecosystem trophic units. A forecast of the lakes biological productivity was composed on the basis of quantitative links between key biotic and abiotic components of an aquatic ecosystem summed up in the form of the massbalance model. Results of the model test by the empiric data have shown that it possesses sufficient prediction reliability and is applicable for development of the lacustrine ecosystems’ biotic balances. The model can serve as a good tool for reconstruction of the lacking data and expert assessment of the ecosystems’ trophic status provided the specific local conditions are taken into account. Moreover, it can be used for cross-checking of empiric and the model predicted data reliability.