К проблеме корректности методов расчетов и задания исходной гидрологической и гидрохимической информации при регламентации техногенных воздействий на водные объекты

Abstract

Issues concerning the correctness of the currently used system of admissible discharge norms development, as well as the practice of initial hydrological and hydro/chemical information input have been considered. Required and sufficient conditions of V.A. Frolov – I.D. Rodziller and A.V. Karaushev methods application have been substantiated. The necessity of transfer to the use of combined schemes including one-dimensional, two-dimensional and threedimensional models in calculation of the admissible discharge norms has been demonstrated. The above models enable to calculate the watercourse hydrodynamic parameters in accordance with the normal water consumption morphometry provided the hydrodynamic blocks availability. Within-year and inter-year non-stationarity of the hydrological and hydro/chemical characteristics’ rows used in development of the admissible discharge norms development has been discussed, the necessity of the minimal water consumption correction in these calculations due to climate change has been proved. Assessment of correctness of the currently adopted in the admissible discharge method heterogeneity threshold for background concentrations values both by analytic methods and by the direct statistical methods (Monte-Carlo method) has been carried out. It was proved that application of non-parametric criteria in input of hydro/chemical initial information was effective. Comparative assessment of the median and average arithmetic values use in the hydro/chemical information analyzing was conducted.