ОСНОВНЫЕ ЭТАПЫ РАЗВИТИЯ НАУЧНОЙ МЫСЛИ ПО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ ПАРАМЕТРОВ СЕТИ АВТОМОБИЛЬНЫХ ДОРОГ

Abstract

In this work there is considered a parameter prediction of highway systems and methods used at the account of traffic intensity. A comprehensive model of the transport system structural diagram of the Republic and the interconnec-tion between its separate elements with the notation of organization environment of a traffic system with its constituents is shown. It allows solving problems of traffic organization and ensuring traffic safety at mini-mum costs scientifically substantiated.
 On the basis of the study of qualitative and quantitative changes between a control system and a controlled one for traffic system efficient functioning there are defined advisable and efficient solutions. The characteristic of traffic system parameters is shown which is presented by three groups including a charac-teristic of highway states, structure and transport ve-hicle speed, traffic intensity and the amount of research works. There are emphasized and described typical peculiarities of methods used at the prediction of traffic intensity, traffic speed, and at the elimination of exist-ing drawbacks. The analysis of considered methods, parameters, models and assessments on a long-term prediction of highway systems allowed defining advantages and dis-advantages of existing methods, revealing a basic tool of all methods – a diagram of extrapolation, offering a suitable method with the purpose of current drawback elimination, presenting a model (formula) for a long-term prediction of a traffic speed, defining the most promising method for a long-term forecast of design loads. The authors of the paper have offered a model for a long-term prediction of a traffic speed, there is considered and characterized an attitude in the system of “man-motor car- traffic environment” in the course of its evolution.