주택소비자심리지수와 매매수급동향이 아파트 경매 낙찰가율에 미치는 영향- 강남구, 서초구, 송파구를 중심으로

Abstract

The housing market consumer index, the trends of sales price index and the auction bid price ratio are used as indicators to judge and the real estate market. Whereas there have been several studies that analyzed the relationship between the auction bid price ratio and the housing market consumer index, studies on the trends of sales price index are insufficient. This study examined the determinants of the auction bid price ratio in apartment auctions, and through empirical analysis with the housing market consumer index and the trends of sales price index, it tried to find out how the two indices affect the real estate auction market. The study set the time scope to 6 years between January, 2015 and December, 2020 and the space scope to Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu of Seoul. Independent variables were set as housing market, auction, local, location, article, and time of a successful bid. The analysis method used multiple linear regression analysis using a hedonic price model. As a result of analysis, it was found that the housing market consumer index and the trends of sales price index have a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio. Moreover, the failure in bidding, the land registration, the tenants with opposing power, and the lien have a negative effect on the auction bid price ratio, and the number of bidders has a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio. In addition, more than 30 years of elapsed years, small and medium sized space, and medium-large sized space have a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio, and the timepoint of 2018, 2019, and 2020 were found to have a positive effect on the auction bid price ratio. It is expected that auction bidders will be able to make rational decisions by judging and predicting the situation of the real estate market and auction market.