Abstract
A series of hindcasts for 1-5 years were performed using the INM RAS climate model (INMCM5). Each forecast started on November 1 every year during 1980-2020. The predictability of large-scale climate variability modes on timescales from a season to 5 years is assessed with the series of INMCM5 hindcasts. The spatial distribution of correlation coefficients of the temporal anomalies of the annual mean ocean water temperature averaged for the depths from 0 to 300 m and correlation coefficients of temporal anomalies of the Arctic sea ice area are calculated using the hindcasts, historical experiments and their extensions according to the SSP3-7.0 scenario of the INM RAS climate model. The contributions of initial conditions and external forcings to the predictability of the anomaly correlation coefficients are evaluated.
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