Abstract
The problem of scenario forecasting of the operation of railway stations in the conditions of changing traffic flow is considered. An approach to modeling based on the use of the queuing theory apparatus is proposed, which allows taking into account the presence of significant random impacts on the system operation. The largest railway marshalling yard in the world - Bailey Yard (Nebraska, USA) was chosen as the object. The article presents a mathematical model of its operation in the form of a queuing network, in which, unlike queuing systems, branching and circular movement of applications are allowed. This allows you to display various routes of the movement of cars in the structure of the station. To describe several incoming transport flows, a BMAP stream (Branch Markovian Arrival Process) is used, so it is possible to take into account the parameters of each of them. Analytical results for such mathematical objects are not known, so the model is studied numerically. The amount of traffic flow varies in a series of experiments. Based on the results obtained, the current and maximum capacity of the station, «bottlenecks» in its structure are determined and recommendations are developed to improve the efficiency of its operation.
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