Прогнозирование периодичности планово-предупредительного обслуживания систем противопожарной защиты по результатам параметрического контроля

Abstract

Purpose. The article provides solution to an important, but not yet completely studied problem of forecasting frequency for routine and preventative maintenance of facilities’ fire protection systems according to the results of their parametric control. Excessively frequent and prolonged implementation of preventive measures for such systems requires making them inoperative for the duration of the inspection, which increases risks of fire occurrence and spread at protected facilities. Therefore, in the course of fire supervision it is important to identify inconsistency in preventive measures timing in fire protection systems with their current and predicted condition. The obtained solution to the problem is the basis for the proposed methodology, which can be used as a practical tool for making up and revising calendar plans for routine and preventative maintenance of fire protection systems. Methods. The research methods are based on the queuing theory and its application to the problems of researching reliability for managing the processes of facilities fire protection. To obtain analytical dependences of facilities inspection terms by fire supervision services on the technical condition of their fire protection systems, multivariate statistical analysis methods and assessment of block regression models with matrix coefficients were used. Findings. Analytical dependences on time of condition probability of fire protection systems for a various number of influencing parameters are obtained. Using dependencies, preventative maintenance time for supporting safe systems functioning with specified probability is calculated. To overcome computational difficulties in local prediction of fire protection systems condition, the proposed block representation of operator equations Y (p) = A (p) X (p) – images of Erlang differential equations by a three-component model – is used. Research application field. The obtained solution to the problem is the basis of the proposed methodology, which can be used as a practical tool for making up and revising calendar plans for maintaining fire protection systems. Conclusions. The solution to the current problem of substantiating plans for maintaining fire protection systems is given. The proposed solution is illustrated with specific examples, graphs and tables. Using the obtained solution the methodology that can be used as a practical tool for making up and revising calendar plans for maintaining fire protection systems has been developed.