ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ТОЧНОСТІ РОЗРОБЛЕНОГО ПРОГНОЗУ КОНТИНГЕНТУ УЧНІВ У ДЕННИХ ЗАКЛАДАХ ЗАГАЛЬНОЇ СЕРЕДНЬОЇ ОСВІТИ

Abstract

In recent years, the development trends of the general secondary education in Ukraine formed under the influence of the negative demographic situation, have particularly highlighted the problem of defining and implementing a strategy for further reform and development faced by the education management authorities. Solving issues is impossible without planning for the future and forecasting calculations of statistical and analytical indicators requiring continuous improvement of economic and mathematical models, as well as mathematical and statistical methods of analysis. As the initial data for forecasting, the information from the State Statistics Service on the birth rate of children in Ukraine for the years 2008-2015, the information from the statistical reporting form № 76-RVK "Consolidated Report of General Secondary Education Institutions" for the period of 2014/2015-2020/2021 academic years was used. The article presents the results of calculating the accuracy of forecast estimation of the number of first-graders and the contingent of students in full-time general secondary education institutions (excluding special institutions) for the 2020/2021 academic year. In the course of the research, the analysis of scientific publications was carried out, which proved the relevance of developing methods for calculating forecast values of key indicators of the general secondary education, assessing the accuracy of the forecast and the need for further study. Actual values of indicators obtained as a result of processing statistical data for the beginning of the 2020/2021 academic year made it possible to verify the adequacy of the developed forecasting model and calculate mathematical features of the accuracy of forecasting (absolute and relative deviation between the actual and projected values of the studied indicators). The obtained results show that the numerical values of the forecast estimate for most regions are within the statistical error and prove a high level of accuracy of the forecast of these indicators. In our opinion, a promising area of further research is to improve the methodology for forecasting key indicators of the general secondary education system, taking into account the challenges of martial law and the aggression of the russian federation in Ukraine (destroyed and damaged secondary schools, forced migration of students and teachers, etc.). To do this, it is necessary to develop economic and mathematical models taking into account a number of factors and define additional criteria for optimal models.