Сравнительный анализ транспортного спроса и предложения в моделях транспортных систем городских агломераций

Abstract

Purpose: To analyze the methods of mathematical modeling used to determine the demand for urban transportation and predict the intensity of flow distribution in the public transport network. To determine the zones of effective use of network and pre-network methods for the formation of transport models of urban agglomerations. To conduct a comparative analysis of the parameters of transport demand and offer in the network and pre-network variants of urban transport systems modeling. Methods: Mathematical modeling, processing large amounts of data, geoinformation analysis. Results: The methods of determining transport demand and offer used in modern transport models are analyzed. A comparative analysis of pre-network and network methods in transport modeling is carried out, the zone of their effective use is defined. The approbation of the problem solution of determining the transport demand and offer is carried out on the example of the urban transport system model of the St.Petersburg agglomeration. Based on the modeling results, the dependencies of transport demand and offer on the input data and model limitations are analyzed. It is concluded that it is necessary to calibrate the value of each parameter when using transport modeling. Practical significance: The results obtained can be the basis for improving mathematical modeling methods used in urban transport planning. The proposed approaches to modeling transport demand and offer can be used in the creation of forecast models used to justify project decisions in the documentation of territorial and transport planning.