Исследование показателей продуктивности зернового производства и агроклиматического бонитета для задач риск-менеджмента

Abstract

This article examines the dynamics of indicators of grain production productivity and climatic bonus in the context of three zones of the Tyumen region: taiga, southern and northern forest-steppe. The results of the analysis of the gross harvest of the main grain crops in the Tyumen region are presented, which characterize a volatile process characterized by sharp interannual differences. Indicators of agro-climatic bonus range within a year with a range of up to 44%. The unstable nature of the dynamics of weather conditions affecting the productivity of grain production is observed in a time series of agro-climatic bonuses related to the Tobolsk region (taiga), which has low grain yields. In the conditions of climate change, the percentage of values of agro-climatic bonus on the time horizon from one year to 35 years varies within 5.41...51,08%. The study of the dynamics of agro-climatic bonus during the period of active vegetation of grain crops (June-July) for the considered grain-producing territories of the Tyumen region is an urgent issue. The paper demonstrates the capabilities of the author’s tool, which allow an expert analyst to implement research and analysis in the form of “structured” information with the receipt of pre-forecast information and the construction of predictive models of the studied complex processes: the dynamics of indicators of agro-climatic bonus and productivity of grain production in the Tyumen region. The authors put forward a concept based on the comparison of the obtained cycles of the studied time series: the yield of grain crops in the Tyumen region and natural and climatic factors affecting them. The identified cycles of agro-climatic bonus and dynamic range of indicators of grain production productivity based on nonlinear dynamics methods can be used in both continuous and discrete analysis and forecasting.