Интегральный метод оценки результатов деятельности ГУ МЧС России по субъектам Российской Федерации

Abstract

Предложена математическая модель и рассчитаны значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожаров в субъекте Российской Федерации. Субъекты Российской Федерации распределены по категориям уровня обеспечения пожарной безопасности в зависимости от расчетного значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожаров в субъекте Российской Федерации. Предложены оценки результатов деятельности ГУ МЧС России в зависимости от риска причинения вреда (ущерба) и категории уровня обеспечения пожарной безопасности, к которому отнесены субъекты Российской Федерации. The regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation establish that the criteria for assigning objects of control to the categories of damage risk should be formed based on the results of the damage risk assessment. In the developed countries of the world, as a rule, the distribution of objects of control by risk categories is used to justify the frequency of their inspections and is carried out depending either on the point risk assessment or on the number and seriousness of violations of mandatory fire safety requirements identified during the inspection of the object of control. In the literature sources there are no mathematical models for determining the damage risk as a result of a fire in buildings for evaluating the activity results of fire authorities (Main offices of EMERCOM of Russia). The purpose of this work was to develop and test a mathematical model for evaluating the activity and rating of the Main offices of EMERCOM of Russia for the subjects of the Russian Federation based on the category of fire safety level. As a criterion for assigning the subjects of the Russian Federation to different categories of fire safety level it is proposed to use the damage risk as a result of a fire in buildings located on the territory of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation. The mathematical model has been developed to determine the damage risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of a fire in a building and there is given its assessment for buildings on the territory of each subject of the Russian Federation. There was carried out the distribution of the subjects of the Russian Federation according to the categories of fire safety based on the calculated value of damage risk. It is shown that such distribution significantly depends on the objectivity of statistical information on fires and the number of buildings on the territory of each subject of the Russian Federation. The assessment of the activity results for each of 86 EMERCOM of Russia Main offices was made and they were rated based on the category of fire safety level of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation.