Экспертная оценка пожарного риска для кемпинга с применением матрицы последствий и вероятностей

Abstract

Fire safety campsites, which are widespread in the world, especially important for Russia in connection with the lack of specific technical regulations on fire safety. The diversity of threats of fire in the campsite and their dependence on many factors specific to each campsite requires the creation of a universal and objective method of assessing the fire danger. Asked to take four levels of fire risk for campsites in Russia by analogy with international practice, and thereby to give a clear ranking of threats for the Russian and foreign tourists. The algorithm and the methodology of the expert assessment of the level of fire risk camping with the use of a Matrix of consequences and probabilities. To improve the reliability of the methodology used the methods of identification of threats because of their caller, the diagnostic value of the scale of probability and consequences with the use of event tree and is compiled by him diagnostic sheets, indicating the objects and methods of alert, prevention, protection and evacuation, and the evacuation of autocampers, cars and other property. The consistency of experts’ opinions when assessing the fire risk for camping is established by using the criteria of concordance (under the agreed opinion of the experts should be more than 0.5) and Pearson (must be more than its table values). Ranking with the use of this methodology threats to fire safety allows you to set the most probable and most dangerous to life and health of people and safety of their property threatened. The article suggests a method of reducing the level of potential threats to fire safety of camping. Reduction of fire risk is achieved by the exclusion of sources of threats or the application of measures and means of fire detection, alarm and automatic extinguishing it, and also the use of other fire protection measures. The proposed method of assessing the level of fire risk based on the implementation of the method of the matrix of consequences and probability will allow more reliable estimation of fire safety of camping at the stage of prospecting, design and preparatory work for its establishment. The proposed method of assessing the level of fire risk and allows the owners if other indicators are equal, choose sites for camping to give preference to those sites that have lower threat levels, fire safety and cost of their elimination.