АЛГОРИТМ КОМПЛЕКСНОЙ ОЦЕНКИ РИСКА УТРАТЫ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА

Abstract

The methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the risk of loss of food security in the context of climate change is understood by the authors as a set of methods required for analyzing and forecasting the development of agri-food systems based on a scenario approach, as well as a calculation algorithm, as a sequence of steps, including the development of mathematical models and the formation of databases and knowledge. The methodology is based on mathematical models of food production and consumption, a database containing climatic parameters with a step of 10 years on the forecast interval and time series of socio-economic, demographic, production indicators of the agri-food systems of the regions.