Моделирование стратегического потенциала развития перевозок пассажиров внутренним водным транспортом на туристских маршрутах

Abstract

The article presents a flowchart of modeling the strategic potential of passenger transportation development, which is a key element determining the strategic alternatives and the choice of a strategy for the development of river passenger transportation on tourist routes in the medium and long term. It is proposed to model the strategic potential of the river transport development in this segment taking into account the use of their current potential, unused reserves identified as a result of insufficient use of organizational and process potentials, regular monitoring of reserves, as well as growth potential according to scenario conditions relevant during the planning period, and targets specified at the control point at a given control level. The developed methodology makes it possible to justify the optimal allocation of the investment budget for the development of the studied segment of transportation, taking into account the current potential. Modeling the time series of basic indices of observations of significant indicators of river transportation based on a regression model in forecasting is carried out, which allows estimating the increase in volume indicators based on the inherent dynamics of the growth of model variables. There are given formulas for calculating the structure of investments by elements of strategic potential, weights of distributing parameters included into analysis of a comprehensive assessment of the current potential, the vector of investments in the development of resources, processes and potential of interaction in the field of river transportation of passengers on tourist routes, the need for such investments, etc. The conclusions were drawn about feasibility of applying the study results in the strategic planning of river passenger transportation, because the definition of strategic development trajectories, distribution of investments and use of existing reserves will help increase the validity of management decisions