ՀՀ-ում երիտասարդների արտագաղթի սոցիալ-ժողովրդագրական բնութագրիչները, մակրոտնտեսական ցուցանիշների հետ փոխառնչությունների գնահատումը / Socio-demographic Characteristics of Emigration of Young People in the RA and the Assessment of Correlations with Macroeconomic Indicators

Abstract

To comprehensively examine the underlying factors driving external youth migration in the Republic of Armenia, the present paper undertakes an in-depth analysis of the intricate socio-economic and demographic interactions. The study strategically categorizes and scrutinizes the pivotal contributors to the phenomenon, emphasizing their intricate interplay. By leveraging available statistical data and key indicators, such as the Gini coefficient, poverty rates, labor market dynamics, higher education metrics, GDP per capita, agricultural sector productivity, and remittances from abroad, the socioeconomic and demographic aspects of youth emigration from Armenia are systematically assessed. This analysis also encompasses a spatial dimension, delving into the disparities in youth migration across different territories. Simultaneously, a comprehensive evaluation of demographic conditions is undertaken, culminating in an aggregated assessment that classifies regions based on their demographic prospects. Significantly, the findings spotlight the profound influence of regional imbalances on migration patterns, with border proximity emerging as a compelling determinant that often eclipses markers of income and quality of life. Building upon these insights, the present paper proceeds to evaluate the connection between external youth migration and macroeconomic indicators. A rigorous analytical approach is employed, featuring correlation matrices, regression analyses, and model derivations to articulate the intricate relationship between the migration phenomenon and broader macroeconomic factors. Moreover, leveraging the ARIMA model, the investigation ventures into future projections of youth migration from Armenia. Evidently, the model anticipates a consistent downward trajectory, indicating a sustained decrease in the incidence of external youth migration. In addition, the present article offers a comprehensive exploration of the multi-faceted dynamics underpinning external youth migration in the Republic of Armenia. Through meticulous analysis and rigorous statistical methodologies, it sheds light on the complex interplay between socio-economic, demographic, and macroeconomic factors, unraveling the intricate tapestry of youth migration while providing valuable predictive insights.