Abstract

This paper proposes a quantitative assessment (based on a formalized definition) of the formation and evolution of traffic congestion, using deterministic characteristics of a random variable - the duration of the movement of individual vehicles of the traffic flow between control lines: average value, mode, median, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, indicators asymmetry and excess. The initial data were obtained with the help of hardware-software complexes for fixing violations of traffic rules installed on the city road network. It has been established that for the same section of the road, the nature of the evolution of the listed deterministic in-dicators of the duration of movement between the two control lines differs significantly in the free movement of road transport and in the case of a traffic jam. The performed study can serve as the basis for developing a me-chanism for real-time assessment of the likelihood of traffic congestion, and can also be used to develop recom-mendations for the rapid response of transport services to prevent and eliminate them.

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