Логико-параметрическое моделирование и оценка возможностной меры происшествия в системе «печь — отливка — работник»

Abstract

The problem of quantitative determination and comparison of the degree of hazard of heterogeneous non-standard technical systems of the type «protection — object — employee» can be solved by adopting and applying the unified models and algorithms for calculating indicators. On the example of the technical system «furnace — casting — employee» within the framework of the previously developed method of the logical-parametric modeling (Esipov, Samsonov, Cheremisin), and based on the matrix of the unified hazards in various fields of activity, according to the approximate regulation on the occupational safety management system, a linguistic, logical, and parametric models of prerequisites for possible incidents are built. For the top outcomes identified in the system as typical scenarios for the implementation of incidents, a table of values of the impact and susceptibility parameters was obtained, and on their basis, the exceedance criteria were described that characterize the effects of increasing the impact of negative factors on employees with an increase in the workload and (or) weakening of protection. Based on the obtained logical and parametric models, by converting them into a fuzzy (possibilistic) form and substituting the corresponding initial data, the values of the probabilistic measure of realization of both vertex outcomes and incidents at two levels of protection are obtained. It was obtained that the probabilistic measure of the loss of efficiency by a steelmaker in a steel foundry is estimated at 23 %, which, in the first approximation, is determined by the top outcome — «heat stroke in the absence of protection». It is shown that under the condition of using protection against the action of the thermal factor, the probabilistic measure of thermal shock is reduced by more than an order of magnitude.