Выбор оптимального варианта проекта разработки месторождений углеводородов с учетом риска при отклонении запасов

Abstract

Monitoring of a large number of hydrocarbon fields in the Russian Federation has shown a significant deviation of project development indicators from the actually achieved ones, which undoubtedly determines a high level of risk that can’t lead to rationality of the project and to serious collisions between the subsoil owner, investor and subsoil user. The multi-variability and multifactor nature of the problem to be solved determine the complexity of the methodology for selecting a variant of the oil deposit development system. The project is considered sustainable and profitable for the parties if, in case of possible changes in the main technological parameters of the project - oil, gas, condensate recovery factor [ORF, CIG, CIC] and its economic component – net discounted income [NDI] – it turns out to be financially effective, and possible adverse effects are eliminated by measures provided for by organizational, technological and economic mechanisms within the project. In the process of selecting the optimal variant of projects for the development of hydrocarbon deposits (HCS) it is necessary to take into account the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the used information about the conditions of the project implementation. The most difficult task is a priori testing of the project sensitivity under the expected deviation of geological and recoverable reserves from the reserves approved in the project. The research conducted within the framework of the first stage showed that the search for an optimal solution is possible by jointly taking into account and synthesising the results of probabilistic and statistical methods, game theory methods, including the Laplace criterion, Sevidge’s minimax risk criterion, Hurwitz’s pessimism-optimism criterion, Hodge-Lehman criterion, maximum expected utility criterion, as well as their convergence using the apparatus of L. Zadeh’s fuzzy set theory and building a strategic decision-making scenario. The basis for such a decision, are the results calculated using a geological and hydrodynamic model of the development object, including technological and economic indicators, summarised in profit or risk matrices. The choice of the optimal development variant is carried out on the basis of fuzzy logic by computational selection of the maximum value of the belonging function. On the basis of the developed methodology and software product ‘OPTIMAX’ the selection of the optimal variant of the hydrocarbon deposit development project is provided.