Термическое воздействие на приземный слой тропосферы как способ управления рисками природных чрезвычайных ситуаций

Abstract

Purpose. Natural emergencies that occur in mountainous regions annually damage ecosystems, the country's economy and lead to the death of people. On leeward mountain slopes, where precipitation is insufficient, there is an increased fire hazard of territories, complicating water supply of the population and ecosystems. On windward slopes excessive precipitation leads to the risk of avalanches, floods, and mudflows. The search for ways to redistribute the volume of precipitation between the windward and leeward slopes to control the risks of natural emergencies is relevant. The intensity of precipitation is significantly affected by the dew point height (DPH), which determines the position of the lower cloud boundary (the lower the dew point height, the greater the probability of precipitation). The article discusses the possibility of local thermal impact on the ground layer of the troposphere by heating a section of the mountain windward slope in order to increase the dew point height for the subsequent natural transfer of the precipitation zone to its leeward slope. The purpose of the study is to determine the values intervals of the difference in average temperatures of the tropospheric ground layer at its opposite boundaries and values intervals of average wind speed over the relief, where the thermal interaction of the tropospheric ground layer with a local area of the earth's surface can be used to effectively control the dew point height over the entire windward slope of the mountain. Methods. Three-dimensional field modeling is applied using the Fire Dinamic Simulator software product, which provides a numerical solution of the complete nonlinear Navier-Stokes thermohydrodynamic equations for low-speed temperature-dependent flows. Findings. It has been established that the thermal effect on the ground layer of the troposphere above the foot of the mountain windward slope under forced convection conditions can be used to control the distribution of the dew point height over this entire slope. Research application field. The conducted numerical study is the initial stage of a new scientific direction related to natural emergencies risks control caused by excess or lack of mountain slopes moisture (floods, droughts, forest and steppe fires). The obtained results indicate the fundamental possibility of such control by means of local temperature impact from the earth's surface to the ground layer of the troposphere. The practical significance of the results, including financial costs, required for the specified impact on the ground layer of the troposphere, can be revealed in subsequent publications after conducting full-scale experiments. Conclusions. The possibility of reducing the natural emergencies risks caused by excess or lack of moisture in mountain slopes territories by controlling the dew point height value over windward mountain slopes is shown. A solution to this problem is proposed through thermal impact on the ground layer of the troposphere from the earth's surface.