Системный анализ факторов, влияющих на возникновение лесных пожаров в Северо-Западном федеральном округе

Abstract

A systematic analysis of the factors causing forest fires (anthropogenic and weather conditions, types 
 of forests) has been carried out. Multi-level classifications are defined for each set of factors with the inclusion 
 of terms that allow the decision makers to work with their natural language. An integral forest fire risk assessment is proposed, which is described by a fuzzy model containing a term-set. The structure of the system of criteria by which it is possible to determine the risk of fire has been developed. The proposed integral assessment can serve as an addition to the existing classical scale for assessing fire hazard in forests. It includes the parameters characterizing weather conditions and is used in a large number of countries by supervisory authorities. To differentiate the assessment of fire safety in Russia, the parameters of forestry enterprises in the study area are also taken into account. Based on the proposed matrix structures, a primary database has been developed, which in the future will be filled automatically from open sources of state information systems. The data in the systems are generated at different intervals, most of them daily, which allows for high-quality monitoring and control over the changes in the current situation in the appointed region. Based on the fire hazard scale, it will be possible to obtain an optimal assessment by analyzing a larger number of factors than in the classical assessment. For the subsequent implementation of the decision support method, matrices have been developed using the open data from state information systems. Applying the developed and completed matrices as a single data set is possible with the help of a decision support module, which is planned to be further implemented using the Python language.