ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ВОГНЕВОГО УРАЖЕННЯ ПІД ЧАС ОЦІНЮВАННЯ МОЖЛИВОСТЕЙ ПРОТИВНИКА З ДЕЗОРГАНІЗАЦІЇ УПРАВЛІННЯ ВІЙСЬКАМИ

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In the work the mathematical apparatus for forecasting the effectiveness of fire damage was proposed in assessing the enemy’s ability to disarm the troop management with taking into account the experience of the antiterrorist operation and the Joint Forces Operation in order to provide national security and defense, repression and deterrence of armed aggression of the Russian Federation in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The question of estimating the predicted degree of disorganization of the troops management by the damage for management system, that the enemy causes to its elements using the means of radio-electronic suppression and fire damage, is researched. The assessment of the loss is based on the relative proportion of the lost (suppressed) objects from their total number in the management system. Depending on the size and nature of the damage to the totality of radio-electronic objects and means, the state of the system can be estimated by the appropriate degree of disorganization: disturbance, difficulty or disruption of management. A probabilistic approach is proposed for evaluating the loss of a set of radio-electronic objects and means. The degree of disorganization due to fire damage is estimated using the model of defeat of the objects of the troops management system. The model of fire damage is created with the following assumptions: a group object is given by a set of elementary objects; the defeat of the group object is determined according to the degree of damage to the elements or the damage to the critical element; elementary objects are homogeneous with the exception of critical elements; the distribution of the point of the fall of the lesion may be described by the relevant law. On the basis of the analysis of the structure of objects and possible damage, a mathematical apparatus for evaluating the suitability of elementary objects for performing their tasks in conditions of fire damage was proposed based on indicators: destruction, suppression and disruption. A model of defeat of a single (elementary) and a group military object was developed. The model takes into account: the composition of the group object, its size, the size of elementary objects; the law of the distribution of the point of falling of the means of defeat by the area; the presence of critical elementary objects; characteristics of fire damage.