Оценка риска здоровью и социально-экономических потерь, ассоциированных с неинфекционными алиментарно-зависимыми заболеваниями

Abstract

Mortality among the Irkutsk region population was chosen as a research object. The aim of this study was to assess socioeconomic losses and the epidemiological risk caused by nutrition-related non-communicable diseases, including diseases of the circulatory system, among adult working age population in the Irkutsk region. The study was cross-sectional and observational. We analyzed data on mortality, gross regional product and employment provided by the Territorial office of the Federal State Statistic Service in the Irkutsk region over 2011–2020. Social and economic losses caused by early mortality among the population in the Irkutsk region were calculated in accordance with the Methodical Guidelines on using the Potential years of life lost (PYLL) indicator to establish priority health issues of the Russian population at the federal, regional and municipal level. Data were analyzed using Statistica 6.0. The assessment revealed that over 2011–2020 mortality caused by nutrition-related non-communicable diseases on average accounted for 13.85 % (13.64; 14.07) of the overall population mortality. Average annual social losses equaled 154,827.00 (153,098.56; 156,555.44) person-years lost before a person reached the end of working age. Accompanying probable economic losses aggregated over the analyzed period ranged between 9,560.58 and 15,934.29 million rubles. We managed to build acceptable predictive models (R2 > 0.5) on the growth in economic losses due to mortality caused by nutrition-related non-communicable diseases for both sexes and for males living in the Irkutsk region. Our findings highlight the significance of socioeconomic losses caused by nutrition-related non-communicable diseases and give evidence of suboptimal diets being widely spread among the population of the Baikal region.