Издержки и потенциал торгово-экономических взаимодействий между Россией и мегаформатами Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона

Abstract

The article presents the results of the decomposition of comprehensive trade costs, which make it possible to estimate the costs and potential of trade turnover for the «deep» integration scenario between Russia and countries included in the Asia-Pacific mega-regional trade agreements – RCEP and CPTPP. It is shown that Russia has significantly increased trade with the Asia-Pacific countries, and it has the potential to expand the scale of trade by reducing various barriers. On the basis of D. Novy’s index approach, the comprehensive costs of trade between Russia and RCEP / CPTPP were decomposed into non-tariff barriers and into tariff and transport costs. It was found that non-tariff barriers were the main factor hindering trade between Russia and RCEP / CPTPP. Based on a comparison with the estimates of non-tariff barriers obtained for the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, a possible reduction in such costs in the interaction of the Russia with the RCEP / CPTPP countries has been determined. The assessment showed that if the scenario of «deep» integration between Russia and RCEP / CPTPP is implemented, non-tariff barriers could be reduced by almost 2 times in the interaction of the Russian economy with the RCEP, and with the CPTPP – by almost 2.5 times. As a result, if this scenario were implemented, mutual trade could increase by 40 p. p. and more than 60 p. p. respectively. It is assumed that the continuation of the sanctions of key world economies initiated this year and the self-restrictions of foreign companies in relation to the Russian economy could slow down the implementation of the strategy of geographical diversification of Russian exports and Russia’s full inclusion in the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region in the long term