Поддержка принятия управленческих решений на основе экспресс-технологий моделирования пожара по полевой модели

Abstract

Introduction. In order to improve the well-being of citizens and economic growth of the state in the Russian Federation reform of control and Supervisory activity, which is based on the introduction of a risk-based approach when planning inspections, developing and applying safety requirements, including fire safety. To implement a risk-based approach, it is necessary to take into account the degree of risk of harm to legally protected values, which requires an assessment of fire risks based on deterministic methods (techniques). However, the complexity of these methods does not allow them to be applied in an operational mode without special software and highly qualified specialists, which makes it difficult to implement a risk-based approach and may lead to making unjustified management decisions. Goals and objectives. To support management decision-making when implementing a risk-based approach, it is necessary to develop an information equivalent of basic (full, detailed) versions of fire risk assessment methods that meet the conditions of brevity, simplicity and accessibility to a wide range of specialists, while ensuring high accuracy of calculation results. Method of research. To obtain the results, we used general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge – system, regression, retrospective and comparative analysis, synthesis, generalization, graph theory, and numerical experiment. Research result. Rapid fire risk assessment formulas have been developed that allow determining the required evacuation time when the critical values of three fire hazards are reached: loss of visibility, elevated temperature and HCl, when two types of solid fire loadings are burning in rooms with an area of 1000 to 10000 m2 and a height of 10 to 20 m. Express formulas are developed on the basis of a field mathematical model of fire, the relative error of calculations based on Express formulas is no more than 8 %. Conclusion. The use of Express formulas as a support for management decision-making will allow officials of GPN bodies in the shortest possible time (up to 5 minutes) and with high reliability (accuracy) make informed decisions about the presence (absence) of violations of mandatory fire safety requirements that pose a threat to the life and health of people, and the need to apply administrative measures, which will exclude cases of insufficient measures taken by the audited persons to ensure the safety of citizens, as well as unjustified restrictions on the right to risk their own property. Keywords: rapid assessment, fire risk, risk-based model, fire hazards, state fire supervision.