Abstract
Using results of groundwater flow system modeling for a hypothetical deep geological repository site, a distribution of groundwater flow rates at the disposal depth was analyzed and a method of applying this distribution to a safety assessment for a disposal of radioactive wastes was suggested. The distribution of groundwater flow rates was produced by hydraulic heads simulated from regional and local scale groundwater flow models for the hypothetical disposal site. The flow rates at the locations where deposition holes would be located were estimated. These rates were normalized by the maximum of the flow rates in order to probabilistically illustrate a possibility of canister failures at the deposition holes. From the normalized distribution, probabilistic expectations for mass discharges of radionuclides released from the canisters assumed to be failed were calculated and compared with those deterministically estimated under the assumption that the canisters at the same deposition holes were definitely failed. The suggested method can be contributed to constructing a methodology for safety assessment of a geological repository by reflecting natural conditions of a disposal site in more detail.
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